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Modeling the burden of cardiovascular disease in Turkey [Anatol J Cardiol]
Anatol J Cardiol. 2018; 20(4): 235-240 | DOI: 10.14744/AnatolJCardiol.2018.89106  

Modeling the burden of cardiovascular disease in Turkey

Yucel Balbay1, Isabelle Gagnon-arpin2, Simten Malhan3, Mehmet Ergun Öksüz3, Greg Sutherland2, Alexandru Dobrescu2, Guillermo Villa4, Gulnihal Ertuğrul5, Mohdhar Habib6
1University of Health Sciences, Ankara Yüksek İhtisas Training and Research Hospital; Ankara-Turkey
2The Conference Board of Canada; Ottawa, Ontario-Canada
3Division of Health Management, Başkent University; Ankara-Turkey
4Economic Modeling Center, Global Health Economics, Amgen Economic Modeling Center of Excellence; Zug-Switzerland
5Health Policy and Reimbursement, Amgen; İstanbul-Turkey
6Value, Access and Policy, Amgen, Inc, Thousand Oaks; California-United States of America

Objective: This study aims to estimate the current and future burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Turkey.
Methods: A burden-of-disease model was developed that included inputs on population growth, prevalence, and incidence of ischemic disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), prevalence of modifiable risk factors, mortality rates, and relationship between risk factors and IHD/CeVD. Direct costs to the public health-care system and indirect costs from lost production due to premature mortality, hospitalizations, disability, and absenteeism were considered.
Results: We estimated that in 2016, 3.4 million Turkish adults were living with CVD, including 2.5 million affected by IHD, and 0.9 million by CeVD. This prevalence is projected to increase to 5.4 million by 2035. The economic burden of CVD was estimated at US$10.2 billion in 2016, projected to increase twofold to US$19.4 billion by 2035.
Conclusion: Our study confirms that the current burden of CVD is significant, and that it is projected to increase at a steep rate over the next two decades. This growing burden of disease will likely create significant pressure on the public health-care system in the form of direct health-care costs, as well as on society in the form of lost productivity.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, heart diseases, risk factors, cost of illness, health expenditures, public health


Yucel Balbay, Isabelle Gagnon-arpin, Simten Malhan, Mehmet Ergun Öksüz, Greg Sutherland, Alexandru Dobrescu, Guillermo Villa, Gulnihal Ertuğrul, Mohdhar Habib. Modeling the burden of cardiovascular disease in Turkey. Anatol J Cardiol. 2018; 20(4): 235-240

Corresponding Author: Isabelle Gagnon-arpin, Canada


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